How many Christians in China?

by Tony Lambert

It is some years since I last published detailed estimates of Protestant Christians in China. The subject is certainly worth re-visiting in view of the enormous discrepancies on the subject current in Christian circles. In January 2003 I published an article on ‘Counting Christians in China’ in the International Bulletin of Missionary Research which sought to show the many contradictions between the various statistics often casually forthcoming from various Christian sources. I expected a vigorous debate with the evidence pouring in from every side to prove my skepticism was quite wrong—instead, a deafening silence! Perhaps I had hit on a rather raw nerve.

As available house-church estimates are very incomplete, and sometimes not very reliable, here are estimates province by province for those Protestant Christians associated with the China Christian Council in registered churches or meeting points. These are taken from official government and TSPM publications, from interviews with TSPM/CCC leaders and from the latest estimates published by Amity News Service in November 2004. The Amity figures, based on TSPM/CCC official estimates, for many years have been extremely conservative, and, as I shall show, in some cases are clearly out of date.

Anhui - 3,000,000
Beijing - 39,300
Chongqing - 300,000
Fujian - 1,179,000
Gansu - 262,000
Guangdong - 262,000
Guangxi - 117,900
Guizhou - 400,000
Hainan - 39,300
Hebei - 400,000
Heilongjiang - 600,000
Henan - 5,000,000
Hubei - 500,000
Hunan - 300,000
Inner Mongolia - 172,000
Jiangsu - 1,572,000
Jiangxi - 400,000
Jilin - 350,000
Liaoning - 600,000
Ningxia - 65,500
Qinghai - 39,300
Shaanxi - 458,500
Shandong - 1,179,000
Shanghai - 187,000
Shanxi - 200,000
Sichuan - 524,000
Tianjin - 19,650
Tibet (no TSPM churches open)
Xinjiang - 131,000
Yunnan - 1,179,000
Zhejiang - 1,834,000
TOTAL - 21,210,450

In 2003 the TSPM/CCC leadership gave out the official figure of 17 million Christians, although I recall Bishop Ding admitting the figure could be 20 million. The ANS estimate published at the end of 2004 gave just over 18 million. My updated estimate gives a total of 21 million. Of course, this does not include the many millions of house-church believers. Some networks are very large—however, they may not be as large as believed overseas. For instance, one Chinese Christian worker based in Hong Kong, who has many years experience working with the five large rural networks (formerly the Sinim Fellowship), told me recently he believes their total number of adherents may be in the region of 10 million—rather than the 50-75 million figure often publicized overseas. I know for certain that the China Gospel Fellowship which is one of the “Big Five” had 2.3 million members at the end of 2003—not the much larger figure of 5 million or more given out overseas.

It seems very unlikely that 10 percent of the total population (120-130 million) are Christians—although even these (and higher!) figures are sometimes casually circulated overseas. In Wenzhou, the “Jerusalem of China,” it is generally agreed within China that 10-20 percent of the population there are Protestants. Yet this percentage cannot be extrapolated across the entire country.

Let us look now at some of the estimates for TSPM-related Christians in some of the provinces listed above:

ANHUI: This is a poor, rural province with large numbers of unregistered house churches (two of the “Big Five” rural networks, Lixin and Yingshang, are based there). It is also a fertile ground for cults. Ten years ago TSPM leaders told a visiting British Christian delegation there could be 3 million believers in the province. The recent ANS estimate is just over 1.5 million —this seems far too conservative.

GUANGDONG: this figure of 262,000 based on ANS/TSPM estimates seems extremely conservative, yet I have not seen a more realistic TSPM estimate. Certainly, the Cantonese have been traditionally rather resistant to the gospel, (a popular phrase gong Yeso (talking about Jesus) means “talking rubbish”). However, it is likely the true figure is much higher. There are many house churches, of which the 3,000-strong fellowship led by Lin Xiangao in Guangzhou itself is the best known example.

HEBEI: The ANS figure was only 262,000, but in November 1998 local TSPM leaders told a visiting ex-missionary that there were 300,000 Protestants. More recently, in January 2003 TSPM sources gave 400,000.

HEILONGJIANG: ANS gives 524,000, but as long ago as 1994 they published a figure of 600,000 (300,000 baptized and 300,000 seekers). The true figure must be higher as there has been significant house-church growth over the past decade.

HENAN: The 5 million figure was a TSPM estimate given out in 1998. The ANS now gives 4,585,000. Some people believe there could be 10 million or more house-church believers in Henan.

HUNAN: ANS gives an unaccountably low figure of only 78,600. Yet in 1997 TSPM local leaders told visiting Norwegians there were 200,000 believers; and in June 2000 ANS itself published a figure of 300,000 (presumably based on local TSPM sources)! As long ago as 1996 local house-church leaders estimated a total of 500,000 Christians in the province. This meant that, if accurate, there were then rather more house-church believers in Hunan than TSPM-related. (A ratio of 3:2 house church to TSPM [300,000:200,000]).

INNER MONGOLIA: The ANS gives only 131,000 but in November 2001 Tianfeng (the TSPM/CCC national magazine) published its official figure of 172,000.

JILIN: ANS gives 262,000 but, again, Tianfeng in July 2000 published 350,000.

LIAONING: ANS gives only 423,000 but Tianfeng gave its official figure of 600,000 in January 2002.

SHANGHAI: ANS gives only 166,370 but in January 2005 Tianfeng published its figure of 187,000. I can give a table of TSPM estimates for Protestants in China’s greatest city going back forty years, as follows:

1965 - 30,000
1988 - 60,000
1990 - 80,000
1992 - 106,000
1993 - 120,000
2000 - 150,000
2002 - 160,000
2005 (Jan) - 187,000

All such statistics must be read with caution, but on the surface it seems the TSPM church was growing by about 10,000 per year in the late eighties, by nearly 15,000 per year in the early nineties, down to only about 4,300 per year in the mid and late nineties and then in the five years so far of the new century at about 7,400 per year. Could overall growth be tailing off due to materialism and secularization? I only hazard a guess! However, let Westerners not forget that these official statistics show the church has more than tripled in just 17 years. A humbling thought.

SHANXI: The ANS estimate of only 131,000 seems far too low; as far back as April 1994 the Taiyuan TSPM gave out a figure of 100,000. Two years later, the local TSPM gave a figure of 200,000 in 99 churches. There has been explosive growth in some areas of the province. The low figures may be explained by a “leftist,” repressive religious policy.

TIANJIN: The “official” figure of under 20,000 is a shocking reminder that many large Chinese cities are less than one percent Protestant Christian. Tianjin is one of the least evangelized large cities in the world, even allowing for house churches. As China is rapidly approaching 50 per cent urbanization, this is further reason for doubting the very high guesstimates of over 100 million Christians in China.

I think I have shown fairly convincingly that the real TSPM/CCC figure should be raised to 21.2 million—which is significantly higher than the TSPM’s own 17 million figure or the ANS 2004 estimate of 18 million. However, it is still an extremely conservative estimate, as it also leaves out all youth and children under the age of 18 who are still, officially, discouraged from joining a church. And, of course, it leaves out the vast numbers worshipping in unregistered churches.

I would set down a few parameters to guide us in our guesstimates. Firstly, there is no doubt that house-church growth in many areas is rapid. On the other hand, some of the figures given out overseas may be grossly exaggerated. Also we should not ignore the problem of “double counting”—especially in the cities where some Christians attend both registered and unregistered congregations. On the other hand, we should not forget that TSPM/CCC figures are very conservative as they include only baptized or communicant adult members over 18. I hope to look at estimates for house churches in a future issue.

In the meantime, let us not forget that this revised estimate for TSPM/CCC associated Christians of 21.2 million means the church has grown 30-fold since 1949 when it, according to TSPM and CCP figures, had only 700,000 members. In fact, we are entitled to say the church has grown 30-fold just over the last 40 years since 1965, as it seems likely that on the eve of the Cultural Revolution the number of Christians may well have decreased since 1949 and was certainly no greater. What a witness to the world of the power of the gospel!

Copyright 2005 OMF International